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Industry insights and perspectives on AI-powered user behavior simulation.

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Featured · Industry · July 29, 2026

The Hidden Variable Killing Your Product Bets

How to validate what users will actually do before you build, and win the bets that matter.

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Everything we have written.

Research notes, product walkthroughs and company news.

Research · June 18, 2026

What people say versus what they do

Why stated preference is a weak predictor of behavior, and what to measure instead.

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Product · June 4, 2026

Pricing changes without the guesswork

Test the number before you commit to it. A walkthrough of a simulated pricing study.

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Industry · May 21, 2026

The real cost of a four-week A/B test

What a month of waiting does to a roadmap, and where simulation shortens the loop.

Research · May 7, 2026

How we evaluate a simulation

Backtesting against decisions where the outcome is already known.

! Alert: confusion detected

Product · April 23, 2026

Finding the onboarding drop-off before launch

Where simulated users hesitate, and how to fix friction before it costs activation.

Company · April 9, 2026

Why we started Tenera

We spent years making product decisions without good data on how real users would behave.

Literature Review

From Resembling Humans to Predicting Humans: Insights from Three Papers on User Behavior Simulation

An analysis of three recent research papers examining how large language models can predict actual human behavior rather than simply generating plausible-sounding actions.

Industry

The Hidden Variable Killing Your Product Bets

How to validate what users will actually do before you build, and win the bets that matter.

Methods

User Behavior Prediction for Marketing Simulation

A novel approach to predicting marketing campaign effectiveness without conducting real A/B tests, combining embeddings, state transition graphs, and Markov chains.

Literature Review

Academic papers on user behavior simulation, click models, sequential recommendation, and LLM-based agents that form the scientific foundation of Tenera.

Research log